Latvians voted in a parliamentary election on Saturday, a contest dominated by security concerns over drone incursions and Russia’s war in Ukraine, though opinion polls suggest pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is likely to retain power.
Security Concerns Drive Campaign
Voters across Latvia, a NATO and European Union member of 1.9 million people, face heightened anxiety after official warnings of potential Russian aggression and an increase in airspace violations linked to Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Kulbergs, 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver, leads in polls with about 14% support, followed closely by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power party.
The election follows Kulbergs taking office in May after his predecessor’s coalition collapsed over a series of stray military drones entering Latvian airspace. While the drones originated from Ukraine, officials have accused Russia of manipulating their flight paths. Kulbergs pledged to provide Ukraine with necessary support and increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, one of NATO’s highest levels.
“We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now, so that they can have the upper hand and win,” Kulbergs told Reuters. His rivals, including Sovereign Power leader Julia Stepanenko, argue Latvia should prioritize cost-of-living issues and cease aid to Ukraine. “Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts,” Stepanenko said.
Political Fragmentation and Coalition Challenges
The result could leave Kulbergs needing to build a coalition among fragmented parties. Surveys indicate at least two other groups, populist Latvia First and the left-leaning Progressives, may enter parliament. Kulbergs’ United List leads polls at approximately 14%, but his ability to form a government depends on crossing the 5% threshold and securing support from other parties.
A particularly unpredictable factor is Ainars Slesers, leader of Latvia First, who has shifted toward an anti-Ukraine stance in recent months. “His message is that (the party) condemns Russia’s invasion and stands with Ukraine, but that supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia’s economy,” explained Roberts Kits, a researcher at the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute.
The 100-member Saeima parliament is elected for a four-year term. Voting occurs from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., with initial results expected within hours and a final outcome likely clear by midnight.
Regional Context and Security Realities
Latvia’s position between NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania and Russian and Belarusian territory to the east heightens its security vulnerabilities. The war in Ukraine has intensified concerns about regional stability, prompting increased military spending and anti-drone measures across the Baltics.
