Johannesburg’s upcoming local elections will test whether South Africa’s two dominant parties can set aside their national rivalry to govern the country’s largest city. With no single party expected to secure a majority on November 4, the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) may need to form a coalition—an arrangement that would reverse their traditional roles in city governance.
The ANC lost its outright majority in 2016 and briefly partnered with the DA before their alliance collapsed over leadership disputes. This time, if the ANC fails to win enough seats, it could end up as the junior partner in a coalition it once dominated. Political analyst Richard Calland says an ANC-DA coalition could become a defining question in determining the city’s political future but warned that such an arrangement was far from certain. “It really is going to hinge, I think, on whether the national leadership of the ANC is willing to enclose itself and enter into that kind of arrangement,” Calland said.
Johannesburg’s history of unstable coalitions provides little reason for confidence. Since 2016, the city has experienced repeated leadership changes as alliances fractured over executive positions and policy disagreements. The DA’s potential coalition partners, including ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Freedom Front Plus, face their own obstacles. Personal tensions between DA and ActionSA leaders, for instance, could derail any agreement. Calland emphasizes that personality clashes often disrupt power-sharing arrangements.
A DA-led administration would rely on smaller parties, some of which could act as kingmakers. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), MK Party, and PA may demand significant concessions in exchange for support, forcing larger parties to balance short-term gains against long-term instability. Calland warns that past coalitions have shown how quickly minor parties can destabilize governance when their demands are ignored.
The ANC’s inconsistent provincial leadership adds another complication. Calland argues that national party leaders should take a stronger role in shaping coalition deals in major cities, rather than leaving negotiations to local officials. After the 2024 national elections, national leaders helped broker key agreements, but Johannesburg’s future may depend on whether that approach extends to local government.
Negotiations will take 40 days, with parties evaluating not only seat distribution but also their broader electoral strategies ahead of the 2029 national election. For the ANC, a weak showing could strengthen calls to exit the Government of National Unity (GNU) and pursue an independent path. Meanwhile, the DA’s ability to secure stable backing from smaller parties will determine whether it can govern effectively, or if Johannesburg faces another period of political uncertainty.
